Today will start the Basketball Champions League playoffs. It seems very balanced because almost all the teams had the same level. That’s why I don’t recommend you to bet on the favorite on the first leg of the series even if you think you are sure that a team is much better than the other one. And I will explain to you the reason.
Let’s take 2 series to illustrate my sayings: Le Mans vs. Virtus Bologna and Neptunas vs. Hapoel Jerusalem. The first leg will take place on the underdog court: at Le Mans and Neptunas. Even if you think that Virtus Bologna and Hapoel Jerusalem are much better, my advice is to wait for the second leg. Because:
- there will be no tragedy if the favorite loses the first leg with 4-6 points, because then, next week, on their home court they can smash the other team by 15-20
- the odds for qualification will grow on the favorite team of the series if they will lose the first leg
- at home, any team can win a game, with the support of the crowd, but that doesn’t mean to win the playoff series
- the BCL playoff was planned exactly this way: to have the first leg at the underdog and then the decisive game on the favorites squad court. Think about why!
- I saw by now many series when the underdog team won at home with a minimum margin, after struggling a lot, with luck or referees’ help and then in the second leg they were destroyed away
Gratian Cormos, email@example.com