A couple of days ago odds on Dijon to win the last game of the series against Nizhny Novgorod were at 1.50 and the handicap was -4.5. I placed a moderate amount on that estimating the odds will drop in the next days. Yesterday the odds were 1.33 and the handicap -6.5 and now, Dijon is favourite at 1.22 and the handicap even deeper -7.5. At the game time, the odds will drop again a bit. Why is this happening?
I think JDA Dijon will qualify to the Final 8 of the Basketball Champions League 2019-202 edition that will take place in Athens because:
- the Russian team of Nizhny Novgorod didn’t have an impressive campaign of signings. The have almost no foreigners, no big names from USA and it seems the club is not investing too much money this season. There is an economic crisis and maybe it’s better for them to wait for the proper moment to spend money. At this moment, Nizhny is a strong team and their chances to reach the Final 8 are almost 0.
- JDA Dijon will play at home, while the Russian squad will travel a lot and in the Covid-era travelling is even worst than before. The host team has a better team, with a good mix of French and American quality players. The roster is far better than Nizhny’s one.
- The French side is very interested to reach the Final Tournament ognaized by FIBA in Athens, while for the Russian side this will be a useless spent of money, since they have no chance to win there with this mediocre roster.
The problem of the winner is solved, it remains the handicap, but a huge one is difficult to predict because JDA Dijon don’t need it. Winnning with 24 point or with 6 point it’s the same. Only the win is important because it gives you the tickets to the Final 8 of BasketballCL.