Today I will present you one of the most essential pillars of my betting philosophy. It’s not about the game “Wheel of Fortune”, but about the wheel that describes the best the basketball dynamic in the majority of the leagues in Europe. This concept is saying that all the teams – with few exceptions – are going up or down during a couple of years or even decades. The teams that are down will rise and the teams that are up will go down in the future. It sounds like a cliche, but I will explain to you below.
The best example for my theory: both basketball clubs from Bologna, Virtus and Fortitudo who back at the beginning of the 2000’s were in the European elite competing in the Euroleague’s Final 4. Then, in a couple of years, both squads relegated in the inferior league of Italy, because of the problems with the money. In the last 3 years, Virtus Bologna came from the 2nd league, won the Basketball Champions League and this season they were the main favourite to win the Italian league and the Eurocup, sharing the same possibility with Partizan. Fortitudo as well came back in Legabasket Serie A, was in a playoff position when Coronavirus stopped the league and they have high hopes for the next season in Champions League and in Italy.
Other examples: the rising of Panathinaikos, Olympiacos, Fenerbahce in different moments of the European basketball and then, the descending process. Who thought that these teams will reach such glory for a couple of years, dominating the continent, winning titles and being in consecutive finals? And then when they reached the peak, the fans still believed that this legend can continue at the same level forever. But it wasn’t possible.
This makes the difference between the professional bettor and the fan that is betting. The bettor is watching the wheel trying to understand where it will be the next stop where the favourites will be dropped down, while the fan is captured in a love story with the club, thinking that they will always win. The fan’s mind cannot understand that Anadolu Efes can finish a Euroleague season on the last spot and then the next season can play the Final, and in the third season they could be the main favourite for the trophy.
This concept of the “wheel” is helping bettors to see clearly the dynamic and the succession of the basketball dynasties in many European leagues. It prevents smart people to bet on falling teams and it helps to identify the rising stars of the upcoming season.