Yesterday, on my private Telegram channel I recommended betting on Ratiopharm Ulm against Mornar Bar. For many people, it was a strange option like always when the odd is huge (between 2.45-2.75). Why pick the underdog when Mornar is undefeated at home, while the visitors lost both games away in the Eurocup?
First, take a look at the foto of my article, it illustrates perfectly the intensity of the defense that the German team used from the first seconds of the encounter. They fought like hell for every ball possession.
Why Ratiopharm was so motivated? Because they were almost at the bottom of the group, with only 1 win. They needed that victory to survive for the qualifiers battle.
On the other side, we had a tired Mornar Bar who played much more games than Ulm in the last days and their roster was not complete. The American guard Derek Needham, a key-player and the veteran Milko Bjelica were both missing with injuries. If you take a look at the stats, yesterday Mornar used only an 8 players rotation, from which 2 were scoreless and one, Kenny Gabriel hit only 3 points in almost 34 minutes on the court.
Another advantage of Ulm is that they have a larger rotation. No spectacular players, average guys but clever, hard workers, very well managed by coach Jaka Lakovic. The deeper rotation allowed Ulm to make a bloody defense and it’s how you could explain the poor 3 point percentage of Mornar Bar: 5/29, only 17% from the arc.
Gratian Cormos is a life coach, book writer and mentor living in the city of Barcelona, Spain.
He is the author of the book “How to bet on basketball” available here for only 11 euros.
For the passionate bettors, he created a Telegram channel where you can subscribe in order to receive ALL the betting tips that he makes.