Today it will be the last day of the Bundesliga’ s Final Tournament group stage in Munich. The undefeated Alba Berlin and Ludwigsburg will face each other to win group B, which wasn’t so important till yesterday when Bayern Munich have lost to Oldenburg in the other group. Why is so important this game? Because now the loser between Alba and Ludwigsburg will have to fight Bayern Munich in the Quarterfinals. And normally you would avoid that if you can afford the luxury to play against Gottingen.
After losing Greg Monroe and Nihad Dedovic with injuries, Bayern Munich is looking very bad. They have lost 2 from 4 games disputed in their home-court Audi Dome, where the whole tournament will take place. Bayern is not at their best at the moment, but still a dangerous team with enormous potential. You never know when they could rise and any smart team would avoid them in the next stage of the competition. But would Alba Berlin do so? Are they afraid to lose today against Ludwigsburg because in this scenario they will face Bayern in the next do-or-die? Or they are willing to lose today in order to meet Bayern and eliminate them already in the Quarterfinals?
This decision could be a flip coin. Do you prefer to enter the Finals and play there against Bayern Munich on their home-court or to meet them in the Quarterfinals? I think Bayern could be more vulnerable and easy to sweep now than later in the Finals, because till that moment they can build better chemistry, overcoming the absence of Monroe and Dedovic. Potential winnings in the next games (Quarterfinals and Semifinals) for Bayern could make them a tougher opponent to meet in the Finals than now when their morale is down. That’s why is very difficult to say if Alba Berlin really wants to win the group beating Ludwigsburg today